GoBlackKnights.com continues its early look at Army West Point’s opponents in the 2016 season, with a preview of the 5th opponent on the schedule, and the first from a Power 5 conference, the Duke Blue Devils.
When: Saturday, October 8th in Durham, NC.
Series Record: Duke has a narrow edge in the series record with 12 wins to Army West Point 10 with 1 tie. Since the renewal of the series in 2009, Duke has won two of the last three games, with Army’s last win coming in 2010.
Last Meeting: October 10, 2015 at Michie Stadium.
Duke jumped out to a 27-0 lead in the first half and never looked back winning the game 44-3. Army’s only score came on a 22 yard FG by Dan Grochowski at the start of the 3d quarter, as the Duke defense led by All American safety Jeremy Cash, All ACC linebacker Dwayne Norman and All ACC DT Carlos Wray held the Black Knights to 113 yards rushing. Army’s longest play of the day came on a 37 yard pass from quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw to Kelvin White. Fullback Drue Harris led all Army rushers with 29 yards on 4 carries.
Duke’s 2015 Record
Duke earned it’s 4th consecutive bowl invitation under the guidance of head coach David Cutliffe in his 7th year at Duke.
Season Summary: Duke started the 2015 season off with 6 wins in its first 7 games. They opened the season with a 37-7 win over Tulane, and then returned to Durham to win their home opener against NC Central. They lost to Northwestern at home 19-10, and then won their first two conference games at home against Georgia Tech (34-20) and Boston College (9-7). They beat Army at Michie 44-3 and then traveled to Blacksburg to squeeze out a 45-43 win over Virginian Tech to become bowl eligible.
The season took a turn downward with 4 straight conference losses to Miami (30-27), cross town rival North Carolina 66-31, Pitt (31-13) and Virginia (42-34). They finished their regular season on an up note with a 27-21 win over Wake Forest to finish 4th in the Coastal Division of the ACC with a 4-4 conference record. Duke took on Indiana in the Pin Stripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium and came away with a 44-41 win in overtime to finish the season at 8-5.
In 2015, Duke scored an average of 31.5 points per game (48th in the FBS) and gave up an average of 25.4 (47th in the FBS). They rushed for an average 193 yards/game (37th in the FBS) and passed for 247 yards/game (45th in the FBS). They allowed an average of 154 yards rushing (49th in the FBS) and 241 yards passing (87th in the FBS).
Duke’s Recruiting (2012 - 2016)
Duke is a private university with a stellar academic reputation, and they have a challenge similar to that of schools like Stanford and Northwestern in finding academically qualified candidates with the skills to play in a Power 5 conference. As a private school, they have no reason to limit their recruiting to NC, but they do most of their recruiting on the east coast in the mid-atlantic and southeast. Cutliffe and his winning record have brought an improvement in recruiting in recent years.
2012: Ranked 52d in the FBS and 9th in the ACC by Rivals, with 1 four-star recruit, who graduated this year, and 10 three-star recruits. Four of the three-stars graduated this year (3 with All ACC honors), and 5 who are returning lettermen. Two of the 5 are returning starters.
2013: Ranked 67th in FBS and 11th in ACC by Rivals, with no four or five star recruits and 11 three-star recruits. Five of those three-stars are no longer on the roster, 2 are returning starters, and 3 are returning with limited game experience, along with Parker Boheme who was the backup QB last year.
2014: Ranked 58th in FBS and 13th in ACC by Rivals, with no four or five star recruits and 16 three-stars. One is no longer on the roster, and 5 did not letter last year. Two are returning starters and the remaining 7 played enough to earn a letter.
2015: Ranked 62d in FBS and 13th in ACC by Rivals, with 1 four-star recruit who did not start but earned a letter last year, and 13 three-stars. Ten of the 13 are on the roster but did not letter last year. Two lettered in reserve and TJ Rahming was named a freshman All-American last season at WR.
Starters Returning
Offense: Returns 6 of 11 starters: RS senior QB Thomas Sirk is listed as one of the returning starters, but he ruptured his left Achilles tendon on February 9 during a team conditioning session and underwent surgery on February 10, with no timetable for his return. Parker Boheme took over at quarterback this spring. He played in 10 games last season and accounted for 760 total yards.
Duke has 2 Starters returning at WR: RS-Sr Anthony Nash, So T.J. Rahming (a freshman All-American), but they lost All ACC WR Max McCaffrey to graduation. They also lost their two best tight ends, but have a couple of RS-Sr wide receivers returning with game experience.
Duke returns two of its top three backs from a season ago in redshirt senior Jela Duncan and junior Shaun Wilson. In 2015, Duncan rushed 67 times for 460 yards and four touchdowns while Wilson added 84 carries for 424 yards and three scores. Recently, Duke has utilized 3 running backs to power its rushing attack; with graduating 4 star RB, Shaquille Powell’s spot to fill.
On the offensive line, the Blue Devils must replace a pair of All-ACC linemen, OG Lucas Parker and center Matt Skura who were lost to graduation, but they have three returning starters in RS-Sr right tackle Casey Blaser (All-ACC), RS-Jr left tackle Gabe Brandner (13 starts), and RS-Sr right guard Tanner Stone.
Defense: Returns 6 of 11 starters: The Blue Devils play a 4-2-5 defense. Lost to graduation is 3 time All American safety Jeremy Cash, All-ACC linebacker Dwayne Norman, and 3 of the 4 starting defensive linemen, including All-ACC DT, Carlos Wray. The lone returning starter on the defensive line is RS-Sr AJ Wolfe. and their one returning LB is RS-So Tenashe Bere, who was an honorable mention freshman All-American last year. The defensive backfield is the most experienced unit with 4 of their 5 starters returning, led by RS-Sr CB Devon Edwards who moved from safety to CB last year. He is joined by returning starters Sr CB Breon Border and safeties Jr Alonzo Saxton and Sr. Deondre Singleton.
2016 Season Outlook
Duke recently held its Pro Day, and a total of 11 former Blue Devils who graduated in 2015 took part in the event, a fair indicator of how much talent they lost from last year’s team. David Cutliffe has built a strong program, but the question is whether it’s now strong enough to just reload after losing that many talented players, or will this be more of a rebuilding season. The strength of the offense may depend on whether Thomas Sirk can recover fully from his ruptured achilles tendon, although Parker Boheme would appear to be a reasonable replacement, and Duke has two young and upcoming quarterbacks competing for time this spring as well. They don’t lose too much at running back or wide receiver. The biggest loss could come in their offensive line where the two graduating linemen had a remarkable 94 games and 66 starts between them. The defense had more losses, especially in their front 6, but they return a very experienced defensive backfield, despite the loss of All American safety Jeremy Cash.
Ten of Duke’s 12 opponents in 2016 are the same as they faced in 2015 with Louisville and Notre Dame replacing Tulane and Boston College in the schedule, which in itself makes the schedule tougher. There’s little reason to suspect that Duke will finish any higher in the Coastal Division, but if they can win 4 games in the conference again, they could qualify for another bowl game. That could be a significant challenge. All of their ACC opponents lost fewer players to graduation this season, and are expected to improve, which should make for a tougher conference schedule this year. Athlon Sports picks Duke to finish 6th in the Coastal Division. Back to back away trips to Evanston (Northwestern) and South Bend (ND) in September will make life tougher for the Blue Devils as well.
Early View of the Game
David Cutliffe is in his 8th season as head coach and will be facing the Black Knights for the second straight year; so the triple option should not be a problem for his defense. The Black Knights expect to be improved, while Duke is likely to experience a bit of a drop off in the coming season. Schedule could work in Army’s favor this year. Army has the week off prior to the Duke game, while Duke plays Virginia the Saturday before Army and Louisville 6 days after the Army game. Nonetheless, unless Army comes into the game with 3 or 4 wins (slim chance) and Duke comes in 2-3 (a distinct possibility), we would expect Duke to be heavily favored, especially playing at home. A win in Durham would be an upset, but perhaps not an upset of epic proportions.
Stay-tuned as GBK continues remains in Army football spring practice coverage mode as we bring you our daily articles, analysis and even our Football Spring Central updates on the 12th Knight message board.
**To chat with other Army fans about this article and more, please visit The 12th Knight message board**
NOT A SUBSCRIBER TO GBK? NO BETTER TIME THAN NOW AS WE CONTINUE OUR 2016 SPRING COVERAGE OF ARMY FOOTBALL!
