2022 “Behind Enemy Lines” (Opponent Preview): Wake Forest - (Game #5)
Fast Facts:
• Location: Truist Field – Winston-Salem, NC
• Kickoff time: 7:30 PM Eastern, Saturday, October 8th
• Surface: FieldTurf
• Weather: High 63F, Low 43F, clear
• TV: Regional Sports Network
• UTSA Team Name: Demon Deacons
• Conference Affiliation: ACC Atlantic
• Head Coach: Dave Clawson (55-49 at Wake Forest)
• 2022 Record: 4-1 (1-1 in ACC) - Ranked #15 (AP Poll)
Program History:
The Wake Forest football program began way back in 1888. After starting the 20th century relatively competitive, the Demon Deacons have struggled for most of the last 50 years.
The Demon Deacons are the sixth smallest school in all FBS behind only Rice, Tulsa, and the 3 service academies. They are also the smallest school in a Power 5 conference. This makes what Head Coach Dave Clawson has achieved there in the last few years even more impressive. Coach Clawson has coached in 8 bowl games at Wake Forest.
Wake Forest has seen some famous coaches come through Winston-Salem over the years, all with varying degrees of success. John Mackovic, Al Groh, Bill Dooley, Jim Caldwell, and Jim Grobe have all held the head job at Wake Forest.
Grobe coached at Wake Forest for 13 years and is the winningest coach in Wake Forest history. In 2006, the Demon Deacons went 11-2, won their first ACC Championship in 36 years, and lost in the Orange Bowl to Louisville. Grobe won ACC Coach of the Year; Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year; and AP Coach of the Year.
Clawson took over after the 2013 season. His unique offensive philosophy of getting his playmakers more touches to exploit matchups rather than sticking to a rigidly defined offensive system has paid dividends over his 7 ½ years. Their “slow mesh” has become famous and is one of the hardest to stop offenses in college football.
Series History:
Army has an all-time record of 5-12 vs. Wake Forest. They are 1-6 at Wake Forest.
Last Meeting:
In the most recent contest between the two teams last year, fireworks erupted in a see-saw battle that saw both teams put up a combined 176 points as Wake Forest defeated the Black Knights 70-56 at Michie Stadium. Army’s usually stout 2021 defense had no idea what to do with the slow mesh RPO and Wake scored touchdowns on 9/10 offensive possessions. What’s worse is many of those scoring drives were 1 play. To add insult to injury, Wake scored on a pick-6 on a fake field goal attempt by Army holder/QB Cade Ballard. The pick-6 was pretty much the difference in the game. Wake’s defense didn’t do a much better job of stopping Army as the Black Knights scored 56 points on 595 yards of total offense. The pick-6 and an Army fumble late in the game sealed the victory for QB Sam Hartman and the Demon Deacons. Hartman threw for 458 yards and almost as many touchdowns as incompletions.
Wake Forest Offense:
Wake’s offense hasn’t lost much since last year. In a double overtime slugfest with perennial ACC defensive power, Clemson, Wake put up 45 points before falling 51-45. They scored 31 against nationally ranked Florida State this past week in a 31-21 victory over the Seminoles.
The Deacs are averaging 40.4 points/game to rank 17th nationally. Wake averages 431 yards/game (133 rushing/298 passing). Redshirt Senior QB Sam Hartman missed one game this year due to a non-football medical issue but has started the last 4 games and picked up right where he left off in 2021. He has a 64.2% completion percentage; 15 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions and a QBR of 173.1. Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall was the 2nd best QB Army’s defense will face this year. Hartman is the best.
RB Justice Ellison, who was an absolute nightmare for Army’s defense last year, leads the Deacs in rushing in 2022. He has 70 carries for 300 yards and a 4.3 yards/carry average. He has two touchdowns on the season.
Wake Forest spreads the ball around efficiently through the air. They have 13 different receivers who have caught a pass this season. The leading receiver is 6’5”, 206 lb. Redshirt Junior A.T. Perry. Perry gave the Black Knights secondary absolute nightmares last year at Michie Stadium. He caught 6 balls for 146 yards, 1 touchdown and a 24.3 yards/catch average! His height will cause major problems for the Army secondary. In 2022, Perry has 24 receptions for 364 yards and a 15.2 yards/catch average with 3 touchdowns.
Wake Forest has one of the best all-around offenses not only on Army’s schedule, but on anyone’s schedule.
Wake Forest Defense:
While Wake Forest’s offense grabs all the headlines, their defense is still a little shaky. I watched the Clemson and FSU games, and they are imposing at least according to the “eyeball” test. They struggled mightily to slow down the Black Knights’ option attack last year (as well as the passing of Jabari Laws and receiving of Isaiah Alston). QB Tyhier Tyler, Slotback Tyrell Robinson, and B-back Anthony Adkins combined for 295 yards rushing last year, and Isaiah Alston had 107 yards receiving and won a number of 1:1 battles.
Defensively, Wake is surrendering 28.6 points/game to rank 89th nationally. They certainly aren’t world beaters on defense. Opposing offenses average 380.6 yards/game (246 passing; 134.6 rushing) and they surrender 3.8 yards/carry on the ground…not awful.
The Demon Deacons have 3 players with over 30 total tackles – Redshirt Senior LB Ryan Smenda, Jr. has 38 total tackles; 1.5 TFL; and 1 fumble recovery. Sophomore DB Malik Mustapha has 34 total tackles including 4.5 TFL’s and 2.5 QB sacks. He’s also forced 2 fumbles. Redshirt Junior Naval Academy transfer DB Chelen Garnes has 30 total tackles, 1 interception, and 1 fumble recovery.
Prediction:
Wake opened as a 15-point favorite and the spread is already up to 17 in less than 24 hours. ESPN FPI gives Wake an 84.7% chance to win.
Other factors in Wake’s favor: It’s a home game for the Deacs; Army is banged up and may have to play a plebe and yearling at B-back if Buchanan and/or Riley can’t go. Ballard just had his worst passing game of the season. Isaiah Alston has struggled to beat 1:1 coverage all year; and Army’s turnover margin is -3 on the season and -5 in their 3 losses.
We haven’t even mentioned the defense that gave up 70 points to Wake last year in Michie Stadium and 5 of the best 7 players from that defense have graduated. Army’s run defense is ranked 127/131 nationally and their pass defense hasn’t looked much better. Army is giving up 7-8 inches to receivers like Perry; and Head Coach Jeff Monken called Sam Hartman one of the best football players he’s ever coached against.
So, am I predicting an absolute beatdown? Not so fast, my friend. I have watched enough Army football over the years, and especially in the Monken era to know that just when we are about to count Army out, they get up off the mat like Rocky Balboa and come out swinging. I’m not confident Coach Woody has figured out how to stop the slow mesh, least of all with this group of players, but I’m also not confident Wake suddenly figured out how to slow down Army’s running attack.
I think Army’s back is absolutely against the wall in this one. Monken’s entire culture and program has been built on mental toughness for the past 9 years. So far, the 2022 Army team hasn’t shown that trait. I think this is the week we find out if this team still has a fighter’s chance to win the CiC games and become bowl eligible before the season’s over, or if they’ll go the way of the 2019 Black Knights – lots of potential with a disappointing outcome.
Army gets up off the canvas and puts up a fight, controls the clock, and plays mistake-free Army football, but at the end of the day Wake’s size and speed is just too much for the Black Knights. Wake wins, but closer than the experts think.
Wake Forest – 35
Army - 30
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