Preview: Navy at Air Force

With a much welcomed week off, Army West Point fans have an opportunity to focus more of their attention on the opening round of the annual CiC competition as Air Force hosts Navy in Colorado Springs this weekend. Earlier this year, we previewed each of the teams separately, and in this article we look at some recent contests between the two as well as how each team has performed so far this year.

Series Record: Air Force and Navy have met 48 times, with AFA currently holding a 28-20 advantage. AFA and Navy have split the last 6 contests with 3 wins each and 3 of the last 7 contests were decided in overtime. Navy had a 7 game winning streak from 2003 to 2009 and AFA had a 6 game winning streak from 1997 to 2002. AFA has the longest winning streak in the series, 11 games from 1982 to 1992, and AFA was 19-2 against Navy from 1982 to 2002. The home team has won 4 of the last 6 contests.

In a couple of recent games, the outcome was determined by an unusual event. In 2012, Keenan Reynolds was playing in his first game against AFA and fumbled the ball into the end zone in their overtime drive. The ball was recovered by the Navy guard for the winning TD. In the 2011 game, Air Force blew an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter and then allowed a touchdown by Navy to begin the overtime. But the Midshipmen were penalized for excessive celebration, and Jon Teague's long conversion attempt failed, giving the win to AFA.

Comparing 2016 Records

For purposes of allowing our readers to include strength of schedule considerations, we have included the current Sagarin ratings for the opponents. We also included the current Sagarin ranking and Predictor score, for those who like to have this information. We use Sagarin primarily because he ranks FCS as well as FBS opponents.

Navy’s 2016 Record (3-0) Sagarin Rank 56, Predictor 71.64

-Navy started the 2016 season with a 52-16 tune-up win against Fordham (2-1, Sagarin 162).

-Navy escaped with a 24-20 win against Connecticut (2-2, Sagarin 99) when Bob Diaco wasted a time out and then called a running play on 2d and goal at the Navy two with 17 seconds left on the clock. Navy defenders stopped the run and didn’t let UConn get off another play.

-Navy went to their passing game early to overcome a good Tulane (2-2, Sagarin 107) rushing defense and the Navy defense had little problem containing the Tulane freshman quarterback for a 21-14 win.

AFA’s 2016 Record (3-0) Sagarin Rank 60, Predictor 73.01

-Air Force had more difficulty than they anticipated taking down Abilene Christian (0-4, Sagarin 221) in their season opener in Colorado Springs. AFA piled up 401 yards rushing and Romine passed for an additional 200 yards, but ACU got 274 yards passing and 86 rushing to stay in the game.

-AFA had an easier time with Georgia State (0-3, Sagarin 122), winning that game 48-10.

-AFA opened their MWC conference schedule with a 4th quarter win over Utah State (2-2, Sagarin 84) in a game that saw a lot of penalties on both sides, and AFA winning the turnover battle 2-0. The Aggies outgained AFA in Total Yards 414 to 326 and held AFA to 213 yards rushing.

Statistical Comparisons

GBK examines some relevant current team statistics listing the better team (AFA or Navy) first in each category. Readers will note that the margin of difference in several of these categories is slim and may have little or no bearing on the outcome. Just for fun, we’ve included Army West Point’s statistics and where they rank among the three academies at this time in each category.

Offense Stats (Current NCAA Ranking in Parenthesis)

Scoring Offense (pts/gm): AFA 38.0 (42d) over Navy 33.7 (52d) with Army in the middle at 36.3 (47th)

Total Offense (yds/gm): AFA 486.3 (29th) over Navy 420.3 (69th) with Army in the middle at 450.4 (50th)

Rushing Offense (yds/gm): AFA 359.3 (2d) over Navy 316.3 (5th) with Army on top at 374.8 (#1)

Passing Offense (yds/gm): AFA 127 (123d) over Navy 104 (127th) with Army last at 75.8 (128th)

Passing Efficiency: Navy 185.45 (3d) over AFA 179.41 (6th) with Army last at 150.87 (40th)

3d Down Conversion %: Navy 0.559 (4th) over AFA 0.532 (10th) with Army last at 0.509 (19th)

4th Down Conversion %: AFA 0.500 (68th) over Navy 0.333 (106th) with Army on top at 0.818 (16th)

Red Zone Offense % scores: AFA 0.938 (23d) over Navy 0.750 (101st) with Army in the middle at 0.905 (37th) Note: Army leads the NCAA in RZ rushing TDs with 16 compared to 8 for AFA and 11 for Navy.

TFLs Allowed/gm: AFA 2.67 (4th) over Navy 5.67 (61st) with Army in the middle at 4.5 (23d)

Defense Stats (Current NCAA Ranking in Parenthesis)

Scoring Defense (pts allowed/gm): Navy 18.0 (25th) over AFA 18.3 (27th) with Army on top at 16.0 (18th)

Total Defense (yds allowed/gm): AFA 309.3 (21st) over Navy 359.7 (43d) with Army on top at 264.8 (10th)

Rushing Defense (yds allowed/gm): AFA 51.7 (2d) over Navy 164.0 (75th) with Army in the middle at 87.5 (11th)

Passing Defense (yds allowed/gm): Navy 195.7 (37th) over AFA 257.7 (94th) with Army on top at 177.3 (25th)

Passing Efficiency Defense lower is better: AFA 124.47 (63d) over Navy 129.65 (71st) with Army on top at 106.78 (25th)

3d Down Defense %: Navy 0.366 (63d) over AFA 0.429 (99th) with Army on top at 0.326 (35th)

4th Down Defense %: AFA 0.250 (15th) over Navy 0.556 (75th) with Army in the middle at 0.500 (39th)

Red Zone Defense % scores allowed when opponents reached RZ: AFA 5 of 7 = 0.714 (21st) over Navy 5 of 6 = 0.833 (60th) with Army last at 7 of 7 = 1.000 (tied for last)

Special Team Stats (Current NCAA Ranking in Parenthesis)

Kickoff Return Ave Yards: AFA 44.8 (#1) over Navy 24.83 (31st) with Army last a 21.0 (71st)

Kickoff Return Defense Ave Yds Allowed: Navy 14.42 (5th) over AFA 31.17 (123d) with Army in the middle at 19.5 (47th)

Note that this could be an interesting contest within the contest as AFA’s #1 ranked kick return unit faces Navy’s #5 Kick Return defense.

Punt Returns: Navy averages 16 yards per return (13th) while AFA has not returned a punt. Army averages 8.43 yards per return (59th)

Punt Return Defense: AFA has held opponents to 6.6 yards per return (63d) vs Navy opponents 9.7 yards per return (83d). Army has not had a punt returned by an opponent (7th).

Field Goals: AFA’s Luke Strebel is a perfect 5 of 5 with a long of 33. Navy’s Bennett Moehring is 1 of 2 with a long of 23. Army is currently developing its second FG kicker.

Punting: Navy’s Eric Harris is averaging 41.8 yards on 6 punts with a long of 63 and 3 inside the 20, and Navy’s Alex Barta has averaged 38.3 yards on 3 punts with 1 inside the 20. AFA’s Steve Brozy is averaging 36.0 yards on 13 punts with a long of 47 and 4 inside the 20. Army’s Nick Schrage has averaged 33.8 yards on 8 punts with 4 inside the 20.

Penalties,Turnovers, and TOP (Current NCAA Ranking in Parenthesis)

Fewest Penalties per game: Navy 2.33 (2d) over AFA 5.67 (45th) with Army in the middle at 5.0 (20th)

Fewest Penalty yards per game: Navy 26.33 (2d) over AFA 56.0 (65th) with Army in the middle at 44.25 (28th)

Year after year, Navy is near the top of the NCAA in fewest penalties, while AFA tends not to worry as much about this. Weston Steelhammer will miss the first half of the game due to a targeting penalty called on him in the second half of the Utah State game which could be a big loss for AFA. Fans may recall that he was ejected from the bowl game against Cal last season as well.

Turnover Margin: Both AFA and Navy have a Turnover Margin of zero. Neither team has been intercepted. AFA has lost 2 fumbles and has 1 INT and 1 fumble recovery, while Navy has lost 3 fumbles and recovered 3 opponent fumbles. Army has a turnover margin of +6 with 1 interception allowed and 1 fumble lost, while making 6 interceptions and recovering 2 opponent fumbles.

Time of Possession: AFA ranks 4th with an average TOP of 36 minutes, while Navy has not controlled the ball as well with an average TOP of 30 (55th). Army leads the NCAA in TOP with an average of 38.

Predictions

We probably don’t need to point out that the winner of this game has gone on to capture the CiC trophy every year since 1996, but we hope that by including Army West Point’s statistics in our comparison, you’ll see that we are far from convinced that will be the case this year. At the same time, we would not be disappointed if the winner of this contest assumes that they have already won the CiC. Pride goes before the fall.

As usual, we make no predictions about the outcome of the game, leaving that to our readers. We provide the ammo, and let you do the shooting.

Ready on the right…Ready on the left…Ready on the firing line…Commence firing!

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