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2016 Opponent Spring Preview: Navy

Slotback Tyler Campbell in action last season versus Navy
Slotback Tyler Campbell in action last season versus Navy


GoBlackKnights.com concludes our early look at Army West Point’s opponents in the 2016 season, with a preview of the last opponent on the schedule the Midshipmen of Navy.

When: Saturday, Dec 10th at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD

Series Record: Navy has a 60-49 edge in the series with 7 ties.

Last Meeting: December 12, 2015 in Philadelphia, PA. Navy came into the game as a prohibitive favorite among those who looked no further than comparative team records. Navy fielded what was generally regarded as their best team since Roger Staubach led them on a trip to the Cotton Bowl in 1963. Like the game in 1963, the battle in 2015 was a lot closer than most expected, decided on a 4th quarter interception by Navy that stopped what was the potential game winning drive.

Chris Carter made his second career start at quarterback for the Black Knights and continued to impress as he had in his first start against Rutgers. The Black Knight defense held Navy to their lowest point total of the season (21), fewest third down conversions (3 of 15), fewest number of first downs (11) and third lowest rushing yards (199), but the Navy defense was equally impressive at defending against Army’s ground attack in what turned out to be a low scoring game. Army got on the scoreboard first on a 32 yard FG by Dan Grochowski half way through the first quarter, but Navy struck back on their next possession with a 57 yard TD run by Keenan Reynolds. That run accounted for nearly half of Reynolds’ rushing yardage for the game. Tyler Campbell scored his first career TD on a 29 yard run to put Army back ahead 10-7 at the end of the first quarter. Reynolds scored another TD to start the 2d quarter, putting Navy back up 14-10, but Edgar Poe got loose for a 39 yard TD reception from Carter to give Army a 17-14 lead at the half.

The second half became more of a defensive battle with the only score coming off a controversial play with 6 minutes to go in the third quarter. Jamir Tillman got wide open for a 50 yard TD pass, but Army fans argue that Xavier Moss was the victim of an illegal pick as the two Navy receivers crossed downfield. Unfortunately, the officials did not see the interference, and Navy had a 21-17 lead going into the closing minutes of the game. Army’s last drive in the third quarter started with a 30 yard pass from Carter to Poe, followed by an 18 yard rush by Aaron Kemper to get the ball to the Navy 31. Two rushes by Carter ended the third quarter with Army threatening. Giachinta got the first down at the 19 to start the fourth quarter. Kemper got 5 yards to the 14, but Carter lost 5 to set them back to the 18, and a third down completion to Bell came up a yard short of the first down. Dan Grochowski came in to attempt a 29 yard field goal, but missed it badly to leave the Navy lead at 4 points.

Both defenses dominated for the remainder of the game until just short of the 3 minute mark. With the ball on the Army 20, Chris Carter hit Tyler Campbell for a 35 yard completion to put Army in Navy territory at their 45. Jordan Asberry carried the ball to the Navy 39, and then on 2d down and 4 Monken came up with a bold call that created a lot of controversy. Deandre Bell split out wide left and too a lateral pass from Carter, and looked for an open receiver downfield; but Navy sniffed out the play, and two defenders closed on the intended receiver, and the interception gave Navy possession on their own 3. Army held the Mids to 3 and out, but there was only 11 seconds left on the clock when Army got the ball back, and the game ended on a Hail Mary attempt by Kelvin White that was batted down in the end zone.

Navy 2015 Record

7-1 in American Athletic Conference, 11-2 overall

Navy started their season with a 48-10 tuneup game against 13th ranked FCS opponent Colgate (9-5). They played their first conference game against East Carolina (5-7) at Annapolis and won that one 45-21. The following week they traveled to Hartford to play their first away game in the AAC against UConn (6-7) and came away with a 28-18 win.

With a 3-0 record and no break after the UConn game, Navy returned home to host Air Force (8-6). Navy scored first on a 67 yard drive capped by a 2 yard run by Swain to go on top 7-0. Air Force took their second possession to the Navy 1, but Navy defense held on fourth down to hold onto its lead, and then capitalized on 4 AFA turnovers to take a commanding 21-0 lead at the half. Navy extended their lead to 27-0 in the third quarter and then held off AFA for the rest of the game to win the opening round of the CiC trophy battle 33-11.

Navy next traveled to South Bend to take on 9th ranked Notre Dame (10-3) and played them even in the first half, but the Irish took command in the second half to hand Navy their first loss of the season 41-24.

Two weeks later, Navy hosted lowly Tulane (3-9) and struggled to move the ball against the Green Wave; but they were able to capitalize on an interception and 2 fumbles in the second half to pull out a 31-14 win that was tougher than the scoreboard indicated. Tulane held Navy to 133 yards rushing, outgained Navy 386 to 291 in Total Offense and had 21 first downs to Navy’s 18. Navy survived another scare the following week against South Florida (8-5). The Bulls were outplayed most of the game, but they had a 17-14 lead going into the final quarter. Reynolds finally put Navy ahead with a TD half way through the final period and then Navy recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and scored again to win the game 29-17.

Sporting a 5-1 record the Mids traveled to Memphis for another game against a ranked team. They upset the Tigers (9-4) by a surprisingly comfortable margin of 45-20, an effort that elevated Navy into the Top 25. The following week, SMU (2-10) proved to be no match for the Mids, dropping the game in Annapolis by a whopping 55-14 margin. Navy strengthened its position in the Top 25 with another surprisingly big 44-21 win against Tulsa (6-7), setting the stage for a showdown against 10-1 Houston for the Western Division title and chance to play in the inaugural AAC championship game. Houston proved too much for Navy, running away with the game, in a 52-31 offensive show. After edging Army to finish out the regular season at 10-2, Navy got to play in the first ever Military Bowl at Annapolis, beating the Pittsburgh Panthers by a score of 44-28 to cap off the successful season.

It will be either Chris Carter or Ahmad Bradshaw leading the charge at QB versus Navy
It will be either Chris Carter or Ahmad Bradshaw leading the charge at QB versus Navy
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2015 Statistics Offense: The service academies are generally known for their rushing attacks, and 2015 was no exception for Navy as they finished 3d in the FBS with an average of 327 yards per game. They had their usual passing season with an average of 99 yards per game to edge out Army for 125th in the FBS and place them 48th in Total Offense with an average of 425 yards per game. They finished 26th in Scoring Offense with an average of 36.8 points per game.

2015 Statistics Defense: With all the attention on Keenan Reynolds, Navy’s defense never received the credit it deserved for their contribution to the team’s success. They were 26th in Scoring Defense, giving up an average of 21.7 points per game. They had a good defensive season against the rush, finishing 32d in the FBS, giving up an average of 143 yards per game. They were slightly less effective defending against the pass, giving up an average of 222 yards per game (62d in FBS), but that was goode enough to finish with a respectable ranking of 40th in Total Defense at 365 yards per game.

Navy Recruiting 2012-2016

Like Army and Air Force, Navy, has no limits on the number of recruits it can offer each year, and the number of commits listed by the Rivals website for each year is a lowball. Rivals does not maintain lists of Navy recruits for each year; so we had to do a little digging to come up with our analysis.

2012: Rivals ranked Navy 86th in the FBS and listed 28 Commits. Keenan Reynolds and Tago Smith were both in that recruiting class, and neither was rated. The highest rated recruit from that class who is still on the roster is Toneo Gulley, a Rivals 3 star RB is listed as a starter this year.

2013: Rivals ranked Navy 96th in the FBS, with 28 recruits including 2 three-stars. Rivals 3 star, Jamir Tillman is still on the roster and is a starter at WR. Their other 3 star from that year, Sean Spencer is not on the roster.

2014: Rivals has no data for Navy in 2014. Highly regarded recruit Chandler Hawkins, flipped from AFA to Navy but then jumped ship to end up at San Jose State. Another 3 star, Randy Beggs is listed third on the Navy depth chart at safety. One of their top recruits that year was Jarvis Polu, who flipped from Army to Navy after Monken arrived and is now listed as the starting DE.

2015: Rivals did not rank Navy in 2015 and has no list for that class. Among the top Navy recruits we identified from other sources were Andrew Wood, a Rivals 3 star who will be staring on the offensive line for Navy this season, and Nick Czar who was originally recruited by Ellerson as a DT, but is now a sophomore OL on the Navy roster. Elijah Jones is another Rivals 3 star who is listed on the Navy roster at CB but is not on the depth chart.

2016: Rivals did not rank Navy in 2016 in either their overall team rankings or in their rankings of the AAC and has no list for that class. Among the top Navy recruits we identified from other sources were 3 star DT Joe Goff, and 3 star RB, Jonathan Lee, but like the Army West Point recruits we won’t know whether they’re going in direct or headed to NAPS.

Starters Returning

Navy publishes a 3 deep depth chart, which makes it easier to keep track of them than it is keeping tabs on AFA.

Offense - 1 of 11 starters returning

Navy loses all but one of their returning starters, WR Jamir Tillman; so it has to be considered a rebuilding year for them on offense, but the cubboard is not bare, and several players with experience are returning and expected to move up. One player who has already received a lot of attention is senior Tago Smith, who has the dubious privilege of following Keenan Reynolds at quarterback. We’ve seen enough of Smith to know that he is quite capable. He appeared in 8 games in 2015 rushing 27 times for 126 yards and a TD. He saw action in 6 games as a sophomore and carried 38 times for 118 yards that season. Senior Shawn White moves up from third to first on the depth chart at FB, where he replaces Chris Swain and Quentin Ezell who were the big one-two punch at that position last year. At 6-1 and 255 lbs, White has the size and he averaged 4.4 yards per carry last year. Junior Chris High will back up White and has 6 career carries for 31 yards. Like Army, Navy rotates through a lot of slotbacks; so even though they lost their two starters, they have plenty of experience and talent returning in seniors Toneo Gulley and Dishan Romine. At WR, they have the senior Tillman returning at one end, and on the other side, they have junior Tyler Carmone, who played 13 games in reserve last season

The biggest dropoff is likely to be on the offensive line where they lost all 5 starters. Sophomore Andrew Wood is expected to start at LT. He played mostly on special teams last season with a few snaps in reserve. Senior Adam West is slotted to start at LG, and comes into the season with 2 years experience on special teams. Senior Maurice Morris is slotted as the starting center, and is another OL who earned his letters on special teams with limited experience otherwise. Junior Evan Martin, the projected starter at RG is also moving up from special teams. Junior Robert Lindsey is the only offensive lineman who has ever started a game. He started 4 games at RT last year.

Defense: 5 or 6 of 11 starters returning

The Mids lost two of their best defensive linemen, NG Bernie Sarrah and leading pass rusher Will Anthony, but DE Amos Mason returns to anchor the defensive line at one end, and he will be joined by 305 pound senior NG, Pat Forrestal, who played 13 games in reserve last year. The projected starter at the other end is a name that may create some bad memories for Army fans, Jarvis Polu, one of the big ones who got away in the coaching transition. Polu was a backup at DE last year and saw some action in the Army game.

The linebacker unit figures to be the most experienced this year with starting seniors Josiah Powell and Daniel Gonzales joined by returning junior starters Micah Thomas and DJ Palmore. Powell is the only LB of the 4 who did not start every game last season.

The seconday will be less experienced. Returning senior safety Daiquan Thomasson started the last 9 games at Rover last year, but sophomore Sean Williams moves up from special teams to the other safety spot. Juniors Elijah Merchant and Tyris Wooten are currently listed as the starting CBs on the depth chart. Merchant moved up from special teams, while Wooten was shifted from WR to CB this spring. Noticeably missing from the depth chart and from spring practice is three year starter Brendon Clements. Clements is liste on the roster and his bio says that he’s expected to start again, but his absence from spring practice calls that into question.

2016 Season Outlook

Navy picked a good year to launch its invasion of the AAC, with their first and only 11 win season in the history of Navy football. Prior to last season, Navy had 2 ten-game winning seasons, with a 10-4 record in 2009 and a 10-2 record in 2004. Can Navy sustain that momentum as they enter their second year in the AAC?

It’s unlikely that Navy will have the same success in the AAC this year for a few reasons. While they are reasonably deep in talent, they lost what has to be considered the best group of seniors in recent history, including superstar Keenan Reynolds. While Tago Smith should be an able replacement, he’ll have big shoes to fill, and the experience level drops way off after him. Chris Swain is another major player who will be hard to replace, and it’s hard to imagine that the offensive line will be as good as it was last season.

Another factor is that most of their AAC opponents have now experienced the triple option and will be better prepared to defend it this season. Tulane and Houston have already shown that they can defend against the option, and the others are likely to improve from their past experience. Navy has a relatively easy opening game against Fordham, but the schedule gets a lot tougher the next few weeks as they take on UConn who played them tough last year and is better this year, travel to New Orleans to take on Tulane who played them tough this past year, and then head out to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. AFA has the more experienced team this season and has home field advantage; so we look for them to be the favorites. Then Navy faces Houston, a team that beat them soundly last year and has almost everyone coming back. Navy is unlikely to come out of their first 5 games with a winning record. Then they play East Carolina in Greenville, Memphis at home, and South Florida away before taking on Notre Dame in Jacksonville. They would do well to win 2 of those 4 games. Tulsa at home and SMU in Dallas are likely to be easier games, but nothing is a sure thing this year.

Early View of the Game

We anticipate that Navy will be favored to win again this year, because the mindset of most fans is that Navy is naturally superior; but we’ve seen too many close encounters in recent years to accept that at face value. The Army defense played well against a good Navy offense last year; so they should be expected to do even better against a less experienced offense. Navy’s defense is likely to experience less of a drop-off, and the service academies always defend against each other better than most teams; so the challenge for Monken and Davis will be to move the Army offense to the next level and avoid the costly mistakes that have proven fatal in several recent encounters.

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