Army Black Knights Football: 2020 Reload or Rebuild?

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With Army West Point’s season having recently come to disappointing end, fans are debating whether the 2020 season will be a rebuilding year or a reloading year. In an upcoming series of articles, GoBlackKnights.com will address that issue by providing some supporting data comparing the talent level of departing seniors with some returning players most likely to fill the vacancies left by the seniors’ departures.

A starting assumption is that a team that is reloading has been reasonably successful in the current or at least recent years. Classic examples of teams that reload are talent rich perennial powerhouses like Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, or Michigan, but they could also include second tier teams that are not Power 5 schools but maintain a consistent level of talent commensurate with their level of competition. Teams like Boise State, San Diego State, and Memphis fit in that category.

The hiring of a new head coach is one major indicator of a rebuilding year, especially when the previous coach was fired. Wholesale turnover in assistant coaches is a similar indicator of rebuilding, especially if it signals a major change in offensive or defensive schemes of changes in attitude or basic philosophy. The loss of one or more superstars is another indicator of a potential rebuilding year.

Navy experienced what many considered a rebuilding year in 2019 when head coach Ken Niumatalolo hired a whole new defensive staff, and overhauled his offensive scheme to take advantage of Malcolm Perry’s strengths and reduce the potential for QB injuries. Having rebuilt his offense around Perry in 2019, a question one might ask is whether Niumatalolo will have to rebuild his offense again in 2020 with Perry graduating.

Army’s 5-8 record in 2019 gives rise to some of the speculation that the Black Knights are entering a rebuilding year, but having an off season does not, by itself, indicate that a rebuilding year is required. There will be some changes in the coaching staff, but no more than usual, and it’s highly unlikely that there will be a major change in offensive or defensive schemes in 2020.

A more interesting question is whether the talent pool at Army West Point is deep enough to enable reloading. Certainly, we can agree that Army’s 2019 record was effected by some key injuries, and Army fans may be somewhat dismayed by the realization that the “next man up” belief didn’t always work out as well as some had expected. Certainly, few fans expected that Army would be forced to put a fourth string quarterback on the field in a clutch situation this year. That level of injuries is tough for any team to overcome completely.

We accept as nearly axiomatic that good players improve with experience, and that becomes a working assumption in our expectations of current underclassmen to fill the shoes of graduating seniors. Talented juniors are expected to be even better as seniors, and talented sophomores are expected to be better as juniors.

In our series of articles, we will address the question of rebuild vs reload for each unit by taking a look at the losses that Army will experience from graduation and an initial look at the players that will most likely be filling the gaps in 2020.

Of course, some of our prognosis will have to wait for developments coming out of spring and fall practice, as well current and future injuries. We will not include idle speculation about the potential of incoming plebes, even though we acknowledge that they could be a factor as well.

First Up: Offensive Line - Reloading or Rebuilding

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