A recent thread on the 12th Knight forum asked participants to identify the Top 4 things that the Army Black Knights have to do to have a chance of beating Navy. Avoiding fumbles or winning the turnover battle was at the top of almost everyone's list.

GoBlackKnights.com agrees that Army must win the turnover battle to have any realistic chance of winning the game, and we take a closer look at some historical examples and data from this year's season to illustrate the challenge.

By definition, turnovers include both fumbles lost and interceptions, but at the service academies the influence of interceptions is usually negligible due to the small number of passes attempted. This year appears to be a notable exception for the Black Knights, who have added seven interceptions to their FBS leading 35 fumbles, and one might expect to see Army West Point at the bottom of the list in Turnovers Lost by FBS teams, but that's not the case. The seven interceptions this year, though relatively high for Army West Point, are low by most standards, placing Army in a tie for 20th in Interceptions Allowed. In addition, the team has been highly successful in recovering its own fumbles, resulting in just 12 fumbles lost out of the 35. Overall, Army West Point ranks tied for 66th in the FBS in Turnovers Lost. Certainly not good, but not as bad as one might expect from just looking at the number of fumbles.

Navy, on the other hand, leads the FBS in fewest Turnovers Lost with just 2 Interceptions and 5 Fumbles Lost, the latter a rather remarkable statistic for a triple option team. Navy's senior dominated offense has been very adept at avoiding fumbles altogether with only 13 on the season, but they have also been quite successful in recovering their own fumbles to limit the turnovers to 5 from fumbles lost.

By way of comparison, Georgia Tech has lost 14 fumbles, Georgia Southern has lost 11, and Air Force has lost 9. Fumbles are an occupational hazard for triple option teams.

Turnovers are only one of the many factors that impact on Wins and Losses, but it is interesting to note that Navy has lost the turnover battle only twice this season. The first time was against Notre Dame, where they lost the turnover battle 3-1 and lost the game 41-24; and the other was against Houston, where they lost the turnover battle 1-0 and lost the game 52-31. Notre Dame and Houston were better teams and odds are they would have won those games anyway, but turnovers appear to have also had a significant impact in at least two games Navy has won this season.

Air Force committed a season-high four turnovers, in the first half of the Navy game, all in Navy territory, allowing Navy to build a nearly insurmountable 21-0 lead at halftime. Neither team turned the ball over in the second half, and while Navy still edged Air Force 12-11 the last two quarters, one has to wonder what the outcome would have been if the Midshipmen had not won the turnover battle decisively in that game.

Those of us who watched Navy play Tulane saw a second example of the impact of turnovers. A stout Tulane defense held Navy to 133 yards rushing and Tulane had 386 yards total offense compared to Navy's 291, and also had 21 first downs to Navy's 18. Navy held a slim 10-7 edge at halftime, but the Midshipmen forced three straight turnovers in the second half, and converted them into a 31-14 victory.

One has to wonder whether the Black Knights might have beaten the Penn State Nittany Lions had they not fumbled the ball 7 times and lost it 3 times in that game. Penn State scored its first touchdown after Army fumbled on their own 42 on their first possession of the game, and Nittany Lions scored a field goal in the second quarter after Army fumbled the ball on their own 20.

Rice and Army both capitalized on turnovers in their contest. Rice scored their first touchdown after Army fumbled on their own 23. Later, Army got a 39 yard touchdown after Rice fumbled the ball away to balance out the points off turnovers.

Tulane scored one of its touchdowns off an Army fumble that turned into a 21 yard scoop and score, and that TD provided the margin of victory for Tulane.

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Army West Point fans are painfully aware of a few notable turnovers that contributed to Navy wins in recent years.

The 2010 team was the last team to go into the Navy game with a winning record (6-5) but faced a highly favored Navy team led by senior QB Ricky Dobbs. The Black Knights were trailing 17-7 late in the first half and driving for a touchdown when Trent Steelman lost the ball while attempting to dive into the end zone. Navy's Wyatt Middleton corralled the loose ball and ran 98 yards for a touchdown to give Navy a 24-7 lead at halftime. Navy held on in the second half for a 31-17 win. The loss of 7 points to Army plus the gain of 7 points to Navy created a 14 point swing that ended up being the margin of victory.

Even more painful for Army fans is the memory of the fumble on the final drive in the 2012 game. It was Trent Steelman's final appearance for Army, and the Black Knight defense had played well enough to have a 3 point lead going into the fourth quarter. With about 6 minutes left in the game, QB Keenan Reynolds completed a 49 yard pass to Brandon Turner and then followed it up with an 8 yard run to give Navy a 17-13 lead. Army returned the ball to the 17 on the ensuing kickoff, where the Black Knights launched their final drive. After a 5 yard penalty pushed them back to the 12, they cranked out 5 straight first downs and appeared to be heading for the winning touchdown, but then disaster struck. A faulty mesh between QB Trent Steelman and fullback Larry Dixon put the ball on the ground and Navy recovered on their own 14 and ran out the clock to preserve the victory.

Navy fans may recall the time when fumbles helped Navy to win a game against Air Force in 2012. Trey Miller, a notorious fumbler, started the game at quarterback for Navy, but Keenan Reynolds took over in the second half. Air Force had dominated the game accumulating 507 total yards to Navy's 369, but Air Force had fumbled the ball 4 times and lost it 3 of those times to keep Navy in the game, and they were tied at the end of regulation. Navy had first possession in OT and drove the ball to the AF 1 where Navy had a first and goal. Reynolds fumbled the ball into the end zone and OG Jake Zuzek recovered for the Navy TD that won the game.

Statisticians only include lost fumbles and interceptions in the official turnover stats, but some coaches will argue that turning the ball over on downs is no different than an interception or a lost fumble. Unfortunately, Navy has a significant edge in that category of turnovers as well. They are ranked first in the FBS with 21 conversions on 23 attempts on fourth down, while Army West Point has just 9 conversions in 22 fourth down attempts.

Turnovers are often a result of taking risks, and taking some risks is essential to success in football. The risk reward factor is most apparent in the passing game, where a quarterback will sometimes attempt to force a perfect pass rather than throw it away, but risk contributes to fumbles in the triple option as well.

TV commentators noted that Trent Steelman took excessive risks handling the ball at times and showed instant replays of him hanging onto the ball one-handed as he faked a pitch and dove for a few yards. He lived on the edge and sometimes tried to force plays that weren't there. In the first game of his senior season, he attempted to force two passes to slotback Raymond Maples that he never should have thrown. They were the only two INTs he threw that year as he became risk averse in the passing game the rest of the season. Steelman continued to take risks running the ball and pitching it to his slotbacks. Sometimes it seemed as though he was focusing too much on making a spectacular play and forgot to hang onto the ball.

Angel Santiago took a far more conservative approach, and it contributed to him losing his job as the backup quarterback in his sophomore season. There was a lot of pressure on Ellerson to stop the fumbling, and Santiago may have taken it to an extreme, when he came as a sub for Steelman in the 2012 Wake Forest game. He appeared afraid to pitch the ball to his slotbacks and was accused of being a "deer in the headlights." He worked on that conscientiously and won back the starting job in 2013 and again in 2014, but he was always a bit more conservative in his approach and fumbles went down significantly while he was the quarterback. The number of fumbles dropped from 35 in 2012 (Steelman's last season) to 23 in 2013 and 18 in 2014.

After Santiago graduated the number of fumbles increased back to 35 this year with one game to go. Hopefully that number will stay at 35 Navy has learned to execute the triple option well without losing the ball, and the Black Knights need to do the same.