Fast Facts:
Location: Michie Stadium – West Point, NY
Kickoff Time: 8:00 PM Eastern, Friday, December 6th
Surface: Field Turf
Weather: High 33, Low 23, 26 degrees at kickoff
TV: ABC
Tulane Team Name: Green Wave
Conference Affiliation: AAC
Head Coach: Jon Sumrall (32-7, 9-3 in his first season at Tulane)
2024 Record: 9-3/7-1 American
Program History:
The Green Wave’s inaugural football season was 1893. They have been an Independent and a member of multiple conferences. Their 3 SEC Championships are better than a number of current SEC schools.
They have been a member of the AAC since 2014. They have won 10 conference championships including the AAC Championship in 2022 under Head Coach Willie Fritz. Tulane has played in 16 bowl games with a record of 7-9. Last year, they were defeated by Virginia Tech, 41-20, in the Military Bowl. In 2022, they went to the Cotton Bowl as the G5 representative and beat USC, 46-45. The Green Wave won the inaugural Sugar Bowl in their home stadium in 1934, defeating Temple, 20-14.
Tulane has had 19 players named to first-team All-America teams. Of those 19, five were consensus selections, with one being a unanimous selection.
Series History:
Tulane is 13-9-1 all-time against Army, winning the last four in the series. Head Coach Jeff Monken is 0-3 vs. Tulane as the Army Head Coach.
Last Meeting:
The Green Wave dominated Army 38-12 in Yulman Stadium during the “COVID” 2020 season to hand the Black Knights one of only 3 losses in their 2020 campaign. After QB Christian Anderson threw for and ran for a touchdown in the second quarter to cut Tulane’s halftime lead to 14-12, Tulane scored 10 unanswered points in the 3rd quarter to go ahead 24-12. Tulane then continued to pour it on to close out the 38-12 victory. Army threw two interceptions and fumbled on a trick play kick return that was returned for a touchdown.
Tulane Offense:
We have been using the word “explosive” to explain a lot of Army’s recent opponents’ offenses. The adjective fits for the Green Wave as well. Tulane averages 39 points/game. They are also one of the league leaders behind Army in TOP at 33:42. Like Army, Tulane actually prefers to run the ball. They run it about 3:1 vs. pass plays. The Green Wave has a well-balanced attack averaging 216 yards/game passing and 213 rushing. You can’t get much more balanced than that.
The Green Wave are led by Freshman sensation QB Darian Mensah. For a freshman, he makes great decisions with the football and doesn’t put his team in difficult situations.
Mensah is 172/262 for a 65.6% completion rate. He’s thrown for 2514 yards, 20 touchdowns to 5 interceptions, and has a 9.8 yards/attempt average. His QBR is 167.6.
The Green Wave’s rushing attack is led by AAC Offensive Player of the Year candidate, Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes. Hughes has 243 carries for 1306 yards, 15 touchdowns, and a 5.4 average. He is second in the conference in rushing behind Bryson Daily. Hughes was hurt and didn’t play against Memphis, so the Green Wave primarily relied on Senior RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson. Johnson has 27 carries on the season for 198 yards, a touchdown, and a 7.3 average. He is a very capable back-up. Pay close attention to Hughes’s health as this could be a key factor in the outcome of the game.
The Green Wave’s leading receiver is Junior WR Mario Williams. Short and speedy, Williams has 48 receptions for 831 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 17.3 average. He is a deep threat. Junior TE Alex Bauman gets a lot of red zone targets. He has 15 receptions on the year for 171 yards, but 6 of those receptions have been touchdowns. Bauman could present some match-up problems for the Black Knights’ defense over the middle.
Tulane Defense:
Former Army Co-Defensive Coordinator Greg Gasparato’s Green Wave defense is stout. They only surrender 18 points/game; 4.2 yards/carry rushing and 5.9 yards/pass attempt. More importantly, Gasparato knows Army’s offense inside and out and while at Troy, he shut out the Black Knights at Michie Stadium last year. This is not a great match-up for Army’s offense.
The Green Wave’s leading tackler is Senior LB, Tyler Grubbs. Grubbs has 53 total tackles, 36 solo, 1 forced fumble, 2 interceptions, and an INT return for a touchdown. He is a menace on the defensive side of the ball. Grubbs’s LB mate, Sam Howard adds 43 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5 fumble recoveries and an interception. The MOB MUST sustain blocks against these two if they have any chance of moving the ball.
Prediction:
ESPN FPI still gives Tulane a 66.5% chance of winning at Michie Stadium. The spread opened at Army + 3.5 and has slid to Army +4.5 meaning there’s been some early money on the Green Wave. This is the first time we can remember Army being a home underdog in a long time.
Why Army Might Win:
• QB Bryson Daily – Daily has become the X factor for Army football. Even when the defense stuffs the run and shuts down a play, Daily has found ways to break tackles and turn short losses into short gains. Against a team like Tulane, those few yards could make all the difference.
• Tulane’s run defense struggled against Memphis.If OC Cody Worley decides to somewhat abandon the under-center triple-option and go to more of a zone running scheme out of the gun, it may provide opportunities for Daily and Kanye Udoh to do some damage.
• Makhi Hughes’s health – There will be an interesting battle in this one (although not head-to-head) between Hughes and Daily to see who potentially wins the league rushing title and offensive player of the year. If Hughes is hurt as he was against Memphis, this gives Army’s run defense a slight leg up.
• Army’s success in not giving up explosive plays – With very few exceptions Army has made teams grind their way down the field for long, time-consuming drives to score or get red zone stops. If Army can keep Tulane’s passing game (or running game) from more than 3 explosives they have a shot to dictate the pace, control the score, and make Tulane play Army football. Home-field advantage – If this game were in New Orleans, I would give the Black Knights almost no chance. However, Jeff Monken has been very successful in Michie Stadium. His last loss there was in October 2023. The cold will also be particularly difficult for a team from New Orleans, but not for the “Last of the Hard.”
Why Tulane Might Win:
• Coaching staff familiarity with Army – we mentioned Gasparato already and Sumrall has given up a total of one touchdown to Army in his last two outings when he was the Head Coach at Troy. Tulane also shut out Navy earlier this season, so they know how to stop the run and the triple option.
• Talented running game – the only other running game Army has faced that is similar to Tulane’s and Makhi Huges was Notre Dame, and we all saw how well that went. Army’s stellar run defense will be challenged to contain Tulane’s talented RBs and force them to become one-dimensional.
• Tulane doesn’t commit a lot of dumb penalties or turnovers or other self-inflicted wounds. Again, see “well coached.”
• Jeff Monken is 0-3 against the Green Wave at Army and his Black Knights and was 0-2 against Sumrall when Sumrall was at Troy. This will be a very difficult matchup unless Army’s offense can find a way to keep the chains moving.
Sorry to do this, Army fans. The clock will strike midnight on Army’s magical Cinderella season Friday night as Tulane will force Army to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns and pull out a close one.
Tulane – 27
Army - 26
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