FREE - Part I: OT, Brett Toth - Future NFL’er?

Army fans who appreciate good offensive line play have had an enjoyable season and one of the big reasons for that has been the outstanding play of offensive tackle Brett Toth. The Charleston, South Carolina native was selected to the Outland Trophy watchlist at the start of the season and was recently named to the All-Bowl Team by the Associated Press.

Many of those same fans are aware that Toth has been attracting interest from pro scouts; so we at GoBlackKnights.com did some research on the potential of his moving to the next level.

Service academy fans are painfully aware of the flip flops in policy by the Department of Defense and the three services regarding waivers of the active duty service requirement for academy graduates who have an opportunity to play professional sports. In May of last year, DoD published a memo removing authority from each of the three service secretaries to set their own policies and requiring all academy graduates to complete a minimum of two years active duty in a normal assignment before they will be allowed to participate in professional sports; so it will be at least two years before we see Toth playing for any team in the NFL.

The fact that he has to complete his ADSO, is also likely to effect Toth’s chances of being drafted this year, just as it impacted on the draft opportunities for Jalen Robinette last season. In past years, USMA graduates have had to follow a different path in pursuing opportunities to play at the pro level, and this is likely to be the case for Toth as well. Colin Mooney (Cl of 2009), Josh McNary (Cl of 2011) and Ali Villanueva (Class of 2010) all made it to the NFL after serving their ADSO commitment, and Trent Steelman (Cl of 2013) signed a contract and got a tryout but didn’t end up on a roster.

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GBK’s Assessment: Toth has good athleticism on the edge with the feet to handle speed and good strength to sustain blocks. Unlike many finesse left tackles, Brett is a quality run blocker who can get movement at the point of attack. He has blocked well this season and has been a key cog in Army’s nation’s leading rushing attack. However, that same offense is averaged just five pass attempts per game, and this has to be a noticeable red flag for scouts who are wondering if Toth can pass block effectively.

For a more knowledgeable evaluation, GoBlackKnights.com turned to Brent Davis, the Army West Point offensive coordinator who, along with Todd Spencer, also coaches the offensive linemen.

Here’s what Davis had to say about Toth:

There’s a possibility that he could get drafted, but he has to do well in the workouts and the all-star game that he is going to play in. But he’s certainly has an opportunity.

I think his chances are really good. I think he is exceptionally smart football player and his movement skills are off the charts when it comes to blocking people in space and just moving his feet. I think the things that he has to work on is just getting stronger and just the pass blocking.

I’m not saying that he can’t do it [pass blocking], but just the experience in doing it against good people. That will be one of the things that the scouts will be anxious to see.

6-foot-6, 300 pounds and I think has room to carry 25 more pounds and can easily can do that before the upcoming season.

To be truthful, almost every team in the NFL has come through to watch us practice this year. They for sure know who he is and they are excited about seeing what he does in workouts and seeing what he does in the all-star game against really good competition.

As most sports fans know, the choice to play in the NFL is like the one made by Achilles for the short but glorious life, although our analogy substitutes career expectancy for life expectancy. The average career expectancy for an NFL player is 3.3 years, with kickers and quarterbacks having the longest career expectancies, in large part due to the fact that the rules offer them more protection from contact than other players. Offensive linemen are close behind in longevity, with one study listing their average career length of an OL at 3 years and 8 months.

Toth’s ADSO shouldn’t effect his career longevity, but age is also factor to be considered. There are no offensive linemen over the age of 35 currently playing in the NFL, and no team in the NFL has an offensive line that averages more than 30 years old, with the youngest average for an offensive line at 23 and the oldest at 29.2.

Analysts use something called snap-weighted age, which takes into account the effect that repeated contact has on the effective age of NFL players, including offensive linemen. The lack of snaps during his ADSO could increase Toth’s age expectancy, but figuring out what that might be is well beyond our capabilities. One thing that all analysts agree on is that the average career expectancy and average age of players is going down for all positions in the NFL; so the clock is ticking.

To the best of our knowledge, Ali Villanueva is the only service academy graduate ever to play on the offensive line in the NFL, and there’s a logical reason for that. The services, and by extension, the service academies have height and weight standards for acceptance. Getting West Point to relax its weight standards was one of the conditions that Red Blaik insisted on before accepting the head coaching job at West Point, but even he didn’t get cart blanche on weight.

Among other things, cadets and midshipmen have to pass an annual physical fitness test for their branch of service, and Troy Calhoun often cites the two mile run as one of the reasons he can’t recruit bigger offensive linemen. The academies have side stepped the issue in recent years by substituting the bicycle ride for the two mile run, but that version isn’t acceptable for the final PT test and physical required for commissioning; so offensive linemen have to lose weight between the end of the season and graduation. Fortunately, at 6-6, Brett Toth can carry more weight than most service academy offensive linemen and still meet Army standards, but like Ali Villanueva, he’s likely to have to lose weight for his Army service and then add it back on to be competitive in the NFL.

How much that will effect Toth’s chances remains to be seen. Among other things, it could limit his opportunities to hone his skills in football camps while he’s completing his ADSO.

Shrine Game: Toth is one of 25 offensive linemen who have accepted invitations to participate in the East West Shrine game. Players in the game are selected by the NFL based on their potential to make an NFL roster. The coaches for the game are provided by the NFL, which will give Brett an opportunity to demonstrate what he can do to coaches at the pro level. More importantly, in his case, it will provide an opportunity for Toth to practice and demonstrate his ability to pass block, something he hasn’t been called upon to do very often at Army West Point. The game will be played in St Petersburg, Florida on January 20th; so we’ll keep you updated on his progress.

Senior Bowl: The week after the Shrine Game, Toth will be traveling to Mobile, Alabama to participate in the Senior Bowl, which will give him additional practice at pass blocking and another opportunity to demonstrate his capabilities to pro scouts and coaches. Toth will be the first Army player to participate in the Senior Bowl.

Pro Day: With the change to the ADSO requirement, we were wondering whether the NFL was planning to conduct Pro Days at the service academies. We haven’t confirmed a date, but GBK expects that there will be a Pro Day in March of perhaps sooner, and Brett Davis had this to say about how he thought Toth would do:

“He will be ready for that and when they get him on the board to talk football, he’s off the charts,” added Davis.

NOTABLE: Stay tuned for Part II of our coverage on Brett Toth, as GBK chats with former Army OT/TE and current Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro offensive tackle Ajejandro Villanueva about what hurdles lay ahead in his quest to be part of the NFL brotherhood.

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