A GBK Collaboration: Some Possible Answers
“You are what your record says you are.” – Bill Parcells
Army fans and players alike have both used the above quote by the Hall of Fame coach at various points throughout the disappointing 2022 Army football season. What has made this season particularly difficult for the coaches, players and fan base at West Point has been the varied and excruciating ways the 2022 Black Knights have found ways to lose games.
Throughout the past five to seven years of the Jeff Monken era, Army has found ways to win close games (2021 – Mizzou, Western Kentucky, and Air Force; 2020 – Air Force and Citadel just in recent memory). However, in 2022, the Black Knights have been in almost every game this season with a chance to win in the 4th quarter except for the Wake Forest game, and yet, here they sit in mid-November, with a 3-6 record.
Let’s dig a little deeper into why the Black Knights might be 3-6 at this point in the season. As a fan and an analyst and writer for GBK, I have found myself after multiple close losses this year saying:
• “If only we hadn’t fumbled in the red zone.”
• “If only we hadn’t made those key pre-snap penalties that stalled drives.”
• “If only we had made that extra point or field goal.”
• “If only our defense had played as well as our offense.”
• If only our offense had played as well as our defense.”
• “If only our offense could score in the second half.”
• “If only we hadn’t been stopped on 4th and inches on the goal line,” and the list goes on-and-on.
“If only’s” don’t win football games. If you think this is driving the fan base crazy, imagine how the coaches and athletes feel. The Army program has been built on “Army not beating Army,” and executing the fundamentals. No staff in America harps on that as much as the coaching staff at Army. And yet, here we are … 3-6 with a bunch of “if only’s.”
“Winning requires no explanation; losing permits no alibis.” – Anonymous
When you don’t win, there are a lot of “if only’s” and reasons to go around, but here are what the numbers say at this point in the season.
“There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain
With all due respect to the great Mr. Twain, we think the statistics tell a pretty compelling story about the 2022 Black Knights:
• Points/game: 22 (95th)
• Opponent points/game: 28.9 (78th)
• Points/play: .333 (88th)
• Opponent points/play: .440 (104th)
• Opponent yards/play: 6.2 (117th)
• Opponent third down conversions: 44.3 (111th)
• Red Zone scoring percentage: 78.26 (99th)
• Opponent yards/rush: 5.1 (119th) – most disappointing is that this is 0.4 yards/rush better than Army’s vaunted rushing attack
• Opponent rush yards/game: 203.1 (118th)
• TO Margin/Game: -0.9 (118th)
• Takeaways/Game: 0.7 (127th)
Yes, the rushing statistics are near the top of FBS as they are every year (except against other service academies). As you can see by looking at this data, many of these national rankings belong to a team that you would expect to have a 3-6 (or worse) record.
It reminds me of my fourth and final quote for this article. I have a good friend of the family who was an NFL offensive line coach for many years. He coached with the Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins as well as spending several years at Boston College and a year at USMAPS believe it or not.
One day when he was coaching the OL in Miami, one of his players approached him after a post-practice film session. The player said, “Coach, if I could just be more consistent, I’d be really good.” Coach Maser replied, “No. If you were good, you’d be more consistent.” This is the story of the 2022 Army team. They aren’t making unforced errors and near the bottom of all the aforementioned statistical categories due to a lack of consistency; a lack of desire or will power; a lack of character or mental toughness. Right now, at least the way they have played up to this point, they just aren’t very good.
Without going into a detailed analysis of Army’s plight this 2022 football season, GBK Publisher Charles Grevious added these thoughts.
Let’s first be clear that Army has faced some extremely talented quarterbacks at Coastal, UTSA, Wake Forest, and Air Force. If you couple that with the severe drop-off from the graduation of Nolan Cockrill, Arik Smith, Malkelm Morrison and Zach Harding from a solid Black Knights’ 2021 team … you are fighting a slightly uphill battle.
Offensively, 2021 graduate Christian Anderson, was the mainstay at QB last season. His absence has been evident this season, and the staff hasn’t been able to replace his talents.
It doesn’t help when your two top fullbacks (Jakobi Buchanan & Tyson Riley) are in and out of the lineup due to constant injuries, and even when they do play, they clearly aren’t 100%.
Factor in the recent injury (vs. Wake Forest) to the Black Knights’ game-breaker, slotback and return specialist, Tyrell Robinson.
Tyrell is a dynamic player that is hard to replace … like Coastal or Wake Forest's quarterbacks. Take them off the field and each of those offenses' production drops significantly.
Some May Ask … “Why wasn’t their backup talent developed?”
Let’s be realistic about one factor that is often overlooked. Army is not Alabama or Georgia, where very often they have insurmountable leads by the 3rd quarter and the 2nd & 3rd guys on the depth chart are receiving quality game reps. However, even coming off a very solid 2021 season, the Black Knights weren’t afforded the luxury of getting back up players onto the field because their games were consistently close. Hence, the development of said backups is via special teams' play and/or practice reps, which aren’t anywhere close to actual game time experience.
However, there was/is maturating talent …
For example, Jaylin Jacobs was an extremely talented player that played well last season. However, he was more motivated to excel in the Corps, so he doesn't play football any longer.
Then there’s Jimmy Ciarlo, who is similar to last year’s starter, Malkem Morrison in speed and athleticism. Malkem banked a lot of reps and experience over his career. Although Jimmy wasn't consistent with assignments last season, he is progressing rather well at this point in the season.
Moving two-year captain Marquel Broughton to Free Safety and playing Quindrelin Hammonds at Strong Safety has turned out well for the staff. Last year’s captain was graduated safety, Cedrick Cunningham. He had a great deal of experience and made a ton of plays, but “Q” is catching on quite well and provides really good speed to our secondary.
Coaches make decisions on who the best players are and how much they will play. Sometimes that's the hardest decision to make.
If you ask any coach, especially the coordinators and if they are truthful, they will tell you that they never felt that they've called the perfect game. As such, they are always looking for a better way to progress with their respective units. That being said, the better players generally win.
Although not too many folks projected that Army would be 3-6 at this stage of the season, with often lackluster and error-laden performances that leave fans shaking their heads … that is the current state of the Black Knights’ season.
With that being said, there is light at the end of the tunnel, although somewhat dim at the present time. Those youngsters who have been thrown into the fire and who often look like a deer caught in the headlights will mature as players as we are witnessing in the likes of such players as Hammonds and Ciarlo.
Now that we have uncovered the surface reasons for Army’s 3-6 season, GBK Sr. Analyst Gordon Larson will do a deep dive into our best guess explanations for the data you have seen to this point. It’s one thing to explain that something has happened. It’s another thing entirely to uncover some of the reasons behind the problems we detailed above.
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