Making predictions in the new transfer portal/NIL era of college football is maybe more difficult than ever … so I take all predictions (including our own) with a dose of healthy skepticism. Transfers make trying to predict outcomes based on previous seasons almost impossible, as most rosters have experienced a significant amount of turnover vs. 2023.
Add to that the coaching carousel and game planning, scouting, and making predictions becomes that much more difficult. If you’re a coach, halftime adjustments and in-game adjustments using the new tablets permitted on the sidelines will become more important than ever.
If you’re a prognosticator, you’ll probably have a much better feel after the first few games of the new season. As Exhibit A, we just completed Week 0 in the 2024 season, and Georgia Tech just upset 10th ranked Florida State 24-21. The entire panel on College Gameday had FSU in a romp (except for WWE star and celebrity guest picker, Seamus). Welcome to college football in 2024!
The upside about writing for GoBlackKnights.com is that Army is about as traditional a team as you’re going to find in the new era of college football. Of course, there are no incoming transfers, and the only key portal loss was WR, Isaiah Alston (now at Iowa State). There were a few other transfers that the coaching staff will need to replace, but overall, the Black Knights survived the portal and NIL transfers very well.
Most articles I’ve read have Army around 5th in the AAC and between 6-7 wins for reference. A bowl game and another Commander in Chief’s trophy would be the standard for success as has been the case for most of the Jeff Monken era, but if the 2024 Black Knights get hot, a relatively easy AAC slate (no Memphis or Tulane) could make this season one for the books.
The biggest question marks for the 2024 edition of the Black Knights will be:
What does new Offensive Coordinator Cody Worley’s offense look like exactly?How much does it resemble the triple option of old, and how many new wrinkles/holdovers from last year’s hybrid gun option will remain?Which young players will emerge on an inexperienced defense?Will the kicking game hold up in tight contests?Last year, Quinn Maretzki and Cole Talley accounted for more than one victory with their accuracy and deep kick-offs, but the punting game struggled mightily.Can anyone step up to give Army an advantage in the kicking game?Army will have a whole bunch of teams they haven’t played in a while with their entry into the American Athletic Conference, so will the lack of familiarity favor the Black Knights, or their new AAC foes?
Let’s start with a brief look at Army’s offensive and defensive personnel, as well as special teams. Then, we’ll get into a very brief overview of Army’s opponents and predictions for each game. We’ll cover each opponent in more detail in our “Behind Enemy Lines” series that we release each week throughout the season.
OFFENSE:
As always, the keys to success on offense for Army will be ball control and security (win the turnover battle and run at least 10 more plays than their opponents) and to run the ball. Last year’s gun option experiment produced the worst rushing numbers in Monken’s tenure. For Army to be effective against the speed and passing offenses in the AAC, they’ll need to rush for around 300 yards/game.
Senior Co-Captain Bryson Daily returns at QB for the Black Knights. Unlike the start of last season, Daily is experienced, tough, can run between the tackles, secure the football and command the offense. He is probably asset #1 for the Army offense. If (and unfortunately most likely when) Daily has to miss a game or two due to injury, Army’s back-ups look strong in DeWayne Coleman, Cale Hellums, and outstanding Plebe Ethan Washington.
The running backs in Coach Worley’s new offense will carry a heavy load and are led by star Sophomores Kanye Udoh and Jake Rendina. They’ll be backed up by AJ Williams and Jarel Dickson. Look for this unit to grind out yardage and eat clock while keeping the opposing offense off the field. Senior Tyrell Robinson is also listed as a Running Back in the new offense, and we all know what he’s capable of when he’s healthy. We’re just not sure how healthy he is and when he will return to 100% (or anywhere close for that matter).
The slot backs/slot receivers in the new offense are led by speedy Junior Noah Short, the speedy Samari Howard, along with versatile Hayden Reed and experienced Senior Miles Stewart.
The offensive line is the most experienced and deepest unit on the team. This bodes well for the Black Knights rushing game. Center Brady Small is on the Rimington Trophy Watch List for the best Center in America. He’s surrounded by a cast of large guards and tackles with plenty of game experience and size. Expect Coaches Mike Viti and Matt Drinkall to alternate and sub frequently on the OL to keep fresh legs. They have the depth to do it. Expect Senior Boobie Law to get a lot of reps at Tackle along with Senior Lukas Scott. Connor Finucane, Bill Katsigiannis, Braden Bartosh and others give Army great depth along the OL.
At Tight End, Army is led by Senior David Crossan and a cast of 8 sophomores and freshmen that will certainly make an impact.
The top three Wide Receivers will be Liam Fortner, Sophomore Tobi Oluwale and Senior and leading returning receiver, Casey Reynolds. Expect the receivers to do more blocking than receiving, but they will be needed to keep opposing defenses off balance.
DEFENSE:
Defensive Coordinator Nate Woody’s defense always plays above their ability. His swarming, stop the run first and create turnover’s philosophy has allowed the collective to play as a unit and produce results much greater than the sum of their parts.
The 2024 Army defense has the least returning starters in recent memory (between 3-5 depending on where you look), so the offense may have to carry the D (which has performed better later in the season under Coach Woody) in the early going until they start to get some reps in. However, this may be one of the deepest Black Knights defenses in recent memory. The lack of drop off between the starters and their back-ups should allow Coach Woody to rotate players and keep fresh legs as he likes to do.
The defensive line probably returns the most experience and has a good amount of depth, with NT’s Jacob Tuioti, Cody Winokur and Kody Harris-Miller; DT’s Jack Latore, Dre Miller, Kyle Lewis; and DE Trey Sofia (who moved back down from LB). There are plenty of younger players who will also most likely see game reps including, eventually, former Rivals 3-star DT Matt Gemma. The depth of this unit is crucial for two reasons: One, to keep guys fresh, and two, in case of injury.
Army’s Linebackers are the heart and soul of Woody’s defense and the ILB’s probably bring the most experience. Junior Kalib Fortner and Senior Brett Gerena both return a lot of game experience. Junior Andon Thomas has had a great Fall camp and brings a lot of speed to the position. Look for him to start opposite Fortner. Baylor Newsom and Noah Nixon have also had strong camps and will most likely be part of the rotation.
At the Dog position (OLB), the leaders in the clubhouse will be Eric Ford and Elo Modozie. Modozie may also be used at Apache/Nickel. The leading candidate at the all-important Apache/Nickel position right now is probably Chance Keith.
The Cornerbacks are the biggest question mark for Army’s Defense. The Black Knights need to replace Jabari Moore, Bo Nicolas-Paul and Cam Jones. That’s a lot of snaps. The leading candidates to start are the speedy Donovan Platt and Jaydan Mayes. We would love to see sprinter Jaxon Hammond get some playing time, either at corner or as a return specialist. He may be the fastest Army player in years. He is also a sprinter on Army’s track team. The Black Knights’ front seven will have to protect the corners early in the season by getting to the QB.
The safeties are led by Sr. Co-Captain Max DiDomenico. DiDomeinco will be joined by Junior Casey Larkin who was moved from Nickel back after Q Hammonds’ heir apparent, Aaron Bibbins, left the team.
SPECIALISTS:
Returners – We don’t believe Coach Monken and Coach Sean Saturnio will risk another injury to Tyrell Robinson on special teams, so look for Lloyd Benson or Miles Stewart to be the primary kick returner. Typically, Coach Saturnio likes someone sure handed to return punts since Army tends to run punt block a lot more than punt return. This strategy has been very effective. Look for possibly Jadan Mayes, Damon Washington or Safety Max DiDomenico to return punts.
Here's where it starts to get tricky folks. Army needs to replace their kickers, long snapper, holder, and find a punter who’s at least somewhat consistent. Army’s kicking game may not win many tight contests in 2024, but they can’t lose any. As long as Army’s kicking game is a net positive, consider it a victory.
Sophomore Drew Prieto appears to be the leading candidate for the all-important duties of long snapper. Anderson Britton will most likely handle kickoff duties. Placekicker will come down to Britton, Trey Gronotte, or Freshman Bryson Hosea.
Last year’s Punter was Cooper Allan and he’ll also be the most likely candidate at least to start the season as the starting Punter, although I think he’ll have somewhat of a “short leash.”
THE 2024 CAMPAIGN
Week 1 – AUG 30 (FRI) vs. Lehigh, 6:00 PM (CBS Sports)
No one is saying Army should ever take an opponent lightly, but not only did Lehigh finish 2-9 in 2023 in the Patriot League, but they also lost a lot of players to graduation and are a very young, inexperienced team.
The Black Knights will be fired up for their home opener and by the second half, most of the starters should be resting with an opportunity for the back-ups to get some playing time. Consider this season opener as an additional scrimmage for Army.
GBK prediction: Win, 1-0
Week 2 – SEP 7 (SAT) at Florida Atlantic, 12:00 PM (CBS Sports)
The Black Knights open their AAC conference schedule against a tough, Tom Herman-coached Owls team in the South Florida heat. This one will not be easy. FAU will be coming off an opener at Michigan State so they’ll most likely be 0-1.
FAU turns the ball over a lot. They lost 12 fumbles last year and Marshall transfer QB Cam Fancher threw 17 interceptions. Army’s defense will need to create a few turnovers to offset some of the big plays they’re sure to give up.
FAU has very talented Linebackers, led by Senior Jackson Ambush. This gives them a fighting chance of stopping the option, although one week to prepare for an offense that FAU hasn’t seen before is not an easy task.
If Army doesn’t beat Army (giving up explosives; turning the ball over), the Black Knights win a close one in Boca.
GBK Prediction: Win, 2-0
Week 3 – SEP 14, BYE
Week 4 – SEP 21 (SAT) vs. Rice, 12:00 PM (CBS Sports)
Rice comes off a 6-6 season in 2023 with a huge get from the portal in QB EJ Warner (Kurt Warner’s son) who threw for over 6000 yards in two seasons at Temple. Warner will test Army’s young secondary early and often throughout the afternoon.
Rice boasts a two-dimensional offense behind running threat Dean Conners who averaged more than 6 yards/carry last year. Rice also boasts an experienced defense with good linebackers who can stop the run.
Rice’s kryptonite may be turnovers. They were -14 in 2023 and for all Warner’s upside (and there is a lot there), he threw 12 picks each season at Temple. If this game were in Houston, I would pick Rice going away. This is another 50/50 game (like all of Army’s conference tilts in 2024), but in the friendly confines of Michie, Army wins by one score (less than a touchdown).
GBK Prediction: Win, 3-0
Week 5 – SEP 26 (THU) at Temple, 7:30 PM (ESPN)
The 2023 version of the Temple Owls (is every team in the AAC the Owls?) was 3-9 and if Army could count on playing that team, this would be a probable win. However, Coach Stan Drayton hit the transfer portal hard in the off-season. Despite losing QB EJ Warner to Rice, Temple will have 11 transfers starting this year and that should bode well for them. They picked up a number of P4 players in the portal including a RB from Maryland; a QB from Rutgers; an O-lineman from South Carolina, and a couple of JUCO transfers including QB Forrest Brock, who should start.
Because of all this, the Owls will be very unpredictable. They also caught the turnover bug last year and seem to beat themselves. I never know what to think about a road contest on a Thursday night, but I have a lot of confidence that with all those transfers, they won’t know how to stop Army’s option attack.
GBK Prediction: Win, 4-0
Week 6 – OCT 5 (SAT) at Tulsa, TBD
Tulsa won’t be a particularly fun trip for the Army faithful, but Kevin Wilson’s Golden Hurricane were a bad football team in 2023. They also raided the portal for some high-level talent including former UCLA and Indiana standout LB Myles Jack as well as multiple QB’s and WR’s.
Their defense was good at creating turnovers, but their offense gave away almost as many. Particularly concerning if you’re playing Army is the run defense. Tulsa was 1-7 when they gave up more than 4.1 yards/carry in 2023. That does not bode well for them against Army.
Steve Spurrier Jr. runs their offense and is a creative play-caller who will take advantage of Army’s secondary if the Black Knights can’t pressure whoever ends up starting at QB for the Golden Hurricane. Also, of concern at this point in the season is this is about when the injury bug traditionally starts to hit Army. That could impact their 2024 fortunes greatly.
Army should win this game but after starting off white hot at 4-0, this has traditionally been a week when Army has a classic let down (Troy last year and who can forget the 2021 team going 4-0 before walking into Ball State of all places and getting whipped).
GBK Prediction: Loss, 4-1
Week 7 – OCT 12 (SAT) vs. UAB, 12:00 PM (CBS Sports)
Trent Dilfer’s UAB squad seems to be a media darling to be a dark horse in the AAC this year. Their passing game lights up scoreboards, they did a nice job in the portal, and then there’s the defense. They gave up over 41 points in their losses last year. Yikes! Look for the Black Knights to rebound at home after the upset loss at Tulsa.
GBK Prediction: Win, 5-1
Week 8 – OCT 19 (SAT) vs. East Carolina, 12:00 PM (CBS Sports)
East Carolinas was one of the worst teams in the AAC in 2023, finishing 2-10. Keep in mind that they lost to eventual national champion, Michigan, Tulane, SMU and a host of other good teams.
Unlike many of Army’s opponents, ECU has a favorable turnover margin and is pretty solid on defense. Their offense was abysmal in 2023, but they brought in two P4 QBs from the portal in Jake Garcia from Mizzou and Katin Houser from Michigan State to fix their passing game.
ECU will be much improved in 2024 and will be a tough out, but Army gets their first win in program history over the Pirates.
GBK Prediction: Win, 6-1
WEEK 9 – OCT 26, BYE
WEEK 10 – NOV 2 vs. Air Force, 12:00 PM (CBS)
After the end of the Commanders’ Cup where the Army-Air Force game was played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX for two years and last year’s odd game in Denver, Army gets the Falcons in Michie Stadium for the first time since 2020, when Army won the CiC trophy in the last game of the year in front of a nearly empty Michie Stadium during COVID over Christmas break for the Corps of Cadets.
Believe it or not, this will be the first time Army will truly have a home field advantage over Air Force in front of a packed-out Michie Stadium since they beat them in 2018 enroute to Army’s second straight CiC trophy.
For some reason, the Falcons seem to be a consensus media pick to win this game, even after Army dismantled them 23-3 in Denver last year on the back of a few Bryson Daily runs and 7 turnovers that led to Air Force’s first loss of the season last year and helped catapult Army to their 4th outright CiC in the last seven years.
After facing six straight AAC foes, this will be Army’s first foray out of conference at the FBS level in 2024. Air Force loses almost everyone from last year’s starting roster but Troy Calhoun and his staff will just reload. I don’t expect another lopsided blowout like last year, but Jeff Monken has beaten Air Force 5 of the last 7 years. The service academy team that was head and shoulders above Army for about forty years is now 2-5 against the Black Knights in the last 7 meetings. Also, the Black Knights get a week off to rest for this one and their last road trip prior to this contest is on October 5th. That’s some favorable scheduling.
Army wins a much closer contest at home this year.
GBK Prediction: Win, 7-1
WEEK 11 – NOV 9 at North Texas, TBD
Remember the Mean Green Army fans? I think most of us were happy to see them removed from the schedule after a 1-2 tug of war in 2016 and 2017. They came into Michie in Jeff Monken’s turn around year of 2016 and beat them 35-17 as Army turned it over 7 times in the rain. Army got their revenge with an OT win in a shoot out in the Heart of Dallas Bowl later that season. Then, in 2017, Army went down to Denton and lost their last game before Navy in another shootout. That loss prevented Army from having back-to-back 11 win-seasons.
The 2023 version of the Mean Green, coached by Eric Morris, was inconsistent at best (6-6). Plagued by turnovers and an awful defense, the Mean Green’s AAC best offense wasn’t enough to consistently overcome these deficiencies.
So, what do you do in 2024 if you need talent? Raid the portal. Morris did an amazing job of this in the off-season brining in Chad Morris at QB from TCU and bringing in a host of other P4 talent from WVU, Minnesota, Texas, Ole Miss, and the list goes on and on.
We don’t like this game on the calendar in Denton the week after Air Force. It looks like another shoot out and those don’t typically go in Army’s favor (think Wake Forest 2021).
GBK Prediction: Loss, 7-2
WEEK 12 – NOV 16 (SAT), BYE
WEEK 13 – NOV 23 (SAT), NOTRE DAME AT YANKEE STADIUM, 7:00 PM (NBC)
The 2024 version of the Shamrock Series takes place on the Saturday night before Thanksgiving in Yankee Stadium. The last time the Black Knights played Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium was 2010 when Notre Dame beat Army 27-3. Army lost to Notre Dame in the Alamodome 44-6 in 2016. That is Coach Monken’s only game against the Irish at Army.
Well, what can you say about the 2024 version of the Fighting Irish? They’re huge on the offensive front with NFL bodies across the board who can “road grade.” They have NFL-caliber backs and oh yeah, just to add to their offensive juggernaut, how about transfer QB Riley Leonard from Duke? This team is LOADED with weapons across the board as one would expect from Notre Dame.
Defensively, in 2023, Al Golden’s D surrendered less than 3 yards/carry on the ground and the option won’t fool them as HC Marcus Freeman coached at Cincinnati and they see it every year when they play Navy.
There’s always the off-chance Army puts together the game of the century like they did in their overtime defeat against Kyler Murray and eventual college football playoff team Oklahoma in 2018, but most likely this goes more like LSU last year. I doubt Notre Dame hangs more than 50 on Army because of time of possession, but this won’t be close, and Army probably won’t score over 10 points.
Army’s biggest goal coming away from this one is to not let Notre Dame beat them in back-to-back weeks (see Ohio State and Tulane in 2017).
GBK Prediction: Loss, 7-3
WEEK 14 – NOV 30 (SAT) vs. UTSA, 12:00 PM (CBS Sports)
Frank Harris s finally gone from UTSA and last year’s starter against Army appears to have been replaced by Colorado transfer Owen McCown who got plenty of playing time last year in Harris’s absence due to injuries.
UTSA did lose a lot of talent at WR, but they’ll have more back and led by RB Kevorian Barnes, they’ll have a stout rushing attack again. The Roadrunners are well coached by Jeff Traylor and are one of the most talented and consistent teams on offense, defense, and special teams. They don’t beat themselves and it requires near flawless execution to beat them. That’s exactly what Army got last year when they won 37-29 in San Antonio.
UTSA has become somewhat of a fixture on Army’s schedule the last 5 years, with Army winning 3 games in San Antonio and UTSA winning an overtime thriller in Michie in 2022. This will be a tough ask the week after Notre Dame with the Corps at home for Thanksgiving leave. It will be Army’s first home game over Thanksgiving in a long time so expect a somewhat empty stadium and little to no home field advantage.
So, we’re predicting Army’s first home loss of the 2024 season and third loss in a row.
GBK Prediction: Loss, 7-4
WEEK 15 – DEC 7 (SAT) (BYE or AAC Championship)
Thought we would participate in some conjecture here. Army most likely won’t make the AAC Championship in their first year in the conference. However, their schedule is favorable and if they can avoid pitfalls at Tulsa and North Texas and win the rest of the games we are picking them to win, it’s not out of the question that they could end up playing at Tulane or Memphis on December 7th for a conference title and an outside shot at the 12-seed in the college football playoff.
To be clear, we aren’t predicting this at all, but just want to leave it here for your consideration.
WEEK 16 – DEC 14 (SAT) vs. Navy (Commanders Field – Landover, MD), 3:00 PM (CBS)
Your Army Black Knights have now won 2 in a row vs. Navy and 6 of the last 8. While Army is clearly the superior team over the last 8 years, this game is always close (even if you’re up 17-3 with 4 minutes left and the other team has done nothing on offense all day…2023 game, I’m looking at you). So, expect nothing less than a one-score slugfest regardless of which team is better at this point in the season.
Because of the importance of this game, the hope is that the difficult November for Army won’t have too much of a negative impact on their health or stamina for this game. This is one scenario where not having a conference championship the week before would be beneficial.
What does Navy look like in 2024, Brian Newberry’s second year at the helm? LB Colin Ramos returns to anchor a not bad defense that I’m sure will be difficult for Army to move the ball against, as they always are.
The fullbacks are the strength of the team with Alex Tecza and Daba Fofana. First-year Starter QB Blake Horvath takes over for Xavier Arline and Tai Lavatai. This team doesn’t have a ton of talent but will be a formidable opponent. As always, the game will come down to special teams; who makes the least mistakes; and key 4th down stops.
GBK Prediction: Win, 8-4
2024 Bowl Tie-ins: The best thing about Army being in the American Athletic Conference is they no longer have to get to 7 wins before Army-Navy to try and lock in a bowl because they have 2 FCS teams on their schedule. If they’re 6-5 after the UTSA game, they shouid be good-to-go. Maybe even 5-6 does it. Here is the list of all the potential bowls for Army:
Fenway Bowl vs ACC - Military Bowl vs ACC - Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl and Hawaii Bowl in a rotation, but last season the AAC didn't put a team in either one The American Athletic Conference will get a chance at putting four teams in these bowls, depending on matchups, geography, and availability - Birmingham Bowl vs SEC - Boca Raton Bowl vs Group of Five - Cure Bowl vs Group of Five - Frisco Bowl vs Group of Five - New Mexico Bowl vs Mountain West - Myrtle Beach Bowl vs Group of Five - SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs ACC or Big 12 - Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl vs ACC or SEC
FINAL NOTES:
Army has really only two sure things on the schedule…a loss to Notre Dame and a win against Lehigh. All other games are 50/50 toss-ups. If Army can win half of those, they’ll go bowling. Ideally, they win the CiC again as well. That still needs to be the #1 goal.
And if all the tea leaves align, and Army stays healthy and gets on a roll, you never know. They could find themselves playing in the conference championship with a chance at the 12-seed in the CFP.
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