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Fast Facts:
Location: Michie Stadium – West Point, NY
Kickoff Time: 12 PM Eastern, Saturday, November 2nd
Surface: Field Turf
Weather: High 55, Low 41, 50 degrees at kickoff, sunny – partly cloudy
TV: CBS
Team Name: Falcons
Conference Affiliation: Mountain West
Head Coach: Troy Calhoun (131-88)
2024 Record: 1-6, 0-4 MWC
Program History:
The US Air Force Academy was founded and began its inaugural FBS/D1 football season in 1955. They spent their first 25 years as an Independent and joined the WAC in 1980. When the Mountain West Conference was formed in 1999, Air Force became one of its inaugural members.
Unlike their service academy rivals, Air Force has enjoyed tremendous success as a program over the last 50 years consistently. They have had only 7 head coaches in school history, and only 2 since 1984. Ken Hatfield took over the program from Bill Parcells in 1979 and he brought the option offense to Air Force to stay.
Fisher DeBerry was the most successful coach in Air Force Academy history. In 1985, he took the Falcons to an 11-1 record and a #5 national ranking in the AP Poll at season’s end. Their only loss was to eventual national champion, Brigham Young.
Air Force has appeared in 30 bowl games with a 16-13-1 record in those bowls. They won 3 WAC championships under Fisher DeBerry and 1 Mountain Division championship under Troy Calhoun (2015). Air Force leads the Commander in Chief’s trophy series 21-16-10.
Troy Calhoun has had a successful tenure at Air Force. He has an 8-5 record in bowl games and has won 5 Commander in Chief’s trophies.
Series History:
The Army-Air Force rivalry began in 1959. Air Force holds a dominant advantage in the series 38-19-1. However, Army has won 5 of the last 7 games in the rivalry. Calhoun has a 5-5 record against Jeff Monken.
Last Time Out:
The Falcons came into last year’s game at 8-0, ranked nationally, and with the nation’s #1 rushing offense. The 2023 Falcons were a juggernaut on a crash course for an undefeated season, a MWC title, and maybe one of the best seasons in Academy history. Then, they met Bryson Daily, the Army defense, and turned into a “turnover machine.” On the strength of 6 Air Force turnovers, Army won 23-3 and hasn’t looked back.
To see how pivotal that game was and what it did to the futures of both teams, Air Force didn’t win again until their bowl victory over JMU and has only beaten FCS Merrimack College in 2024. The Black Knights haven’t lost a game in over 365 days and have the nation’s longest winning streak at 11 games. They are now ranked 21st in both polls and leading the nation in rushing. What a change of events!
In a preview of what Army fans were in store for in 2024, QB Bryson Daily ran 36 times for 170 yards and the game’s only two touchdowns, and went 4-9 passing for 40 yards. Daily started the scoring with a 62-yard run from scrimmage for a touchdown and an early 7-0 lead. By the time the first quarter ended, Daily punched in another run from 5 yards out to give Army a 17-0 lead that they never relinquished.
Quinn Maretzki kicked 3 field goals as Army’s defense gave the offense short fields all day long. The score was 23-3 at halftime. In the second half, Army played it super close to the vest and chose to let their defense do the work as they protected the 23-3 lead until the final gun. Leo Lowin led the Army defense with 9 total tackles and a TFL. Bo Nicolas-Paul added two interceptions.
Air Force Offense:
Junior QB John “Bobby” Busha is 29/79 passing for 415 yards with 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. He has an 11.6 QBR (I didn’t know QBR’s could go that low) and is ranked 129th nationally. He has a 36.7% completion percentage. Air Force’s passing attack is abysmal.
The Falcons’ leading rusher is Slot WR Cade Harris. Harris has 212 yards on 38 carries for a 5.6 average with 4 touchdowns. Busha is second on the team in rushing with 78 carries for 172 yards for a 2.2 average with one touchdown.
Junior WR Quin Smith leads the Falcons in receiving with 11 receptions for 216 yards and a touchdown. Harris is second on the team with 14 receptions for 169 yards for a 12.1 average.
To say the usually prolific Falcons’ offense is struggling this year would be the understatement of the season. They average 15.6 points per game and have scored 14 touchdowns (keep in mind, Bryson Daily has 19 rushing touchdowns and has accounted for 24 by himself). They are rushing for less than 200 yards/game for maybe the first time in the last 40 years. They have thrown 6 interceptions and fumbled 4 times this season.
Air Force Defense:
Last year’s Super Senior-laden defense lost almost all its starters to graduation (finally). Senior DB Camby Goff leads the team in tackles with 40. Goff also has a forced fumble. LB Osaro Aihie is tied for second with 37 tackles and 1 sack. DB Jamari Bellamy has 37 tackles and a forced fumble.
As a unit, the Falcons defense surrenders 27.4 points/game. They give up 193.7 yards rushing and 187.9 yards passing/game.
GBK Prediction:
As of the time of this article, Army is a 22.5-point favorite! ESPN FPI gives Army an 94.8% chance of winning. I don’t think Army has been favored by this much all season and certainly their FPI % chance of winning hasn’t been this high.
The teams come into this game almost 180 degrees diametrically opposed compared to last year. Army is riding about as high as they have in the past 18 years and Air Force is struggling as much as we can remember. Could this be a repeat of the huge upset we saw last year that completely reversed both team’s fortunes?
Not so fast, my friends. For starters this is Army’s first true home game at Michie Stadium against Air Force since 2018. The sell out crowd will have the Black Knights hyped to take on the Falcons in the friendly confines.
Secondly, I just don’t see how Air Force sustains much offense at all against Nate Woody’s nationally ranked defense. They won’t be able to run the ball so expect them to got the friendly skies early and often to test Army’s pass defense. If they watched the ECU game, they may be tempted to test the middle of the field with their tight ends. This strategy may net them 1-2 big plays, but I have enough faith in Army’s defensive staff to fix the errors that reared their ugly head in the second half of the ECU game and enough faith in Air Force’s ability to throw interceptions that this strategy won’t succeed for 60 minutes.
I also don’t see how Air Force slows down Army’s offense. Their rush defense is not particularly good. Navy put up 34 points on the Falcons so expect similar results from the Black Knights. Don’t expect more than 3-4 option plays all game from Army’s offense. I’d expect a game plan similar to the one Coach Worley used against ECU to put up 45 points. Lots of gun, QB follow, QB lead, and heavy doses of Kanye Udoh. Daily will mix in just enough passing to go over 100 yards both rushing and passing again and keep the Falcons’ defense honest and keep them from stacking the box. Worley will lean on the MOB to dominate Air Force’s D-line and rush for at least 200-250 yards. Army also wins the turnover battle and special teams.\
Take Air Force with the 22.5 points if you’re betting.
Army – 34
Air Force - 14
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