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• Official Army-North Texas Game (11/9) Fan Prediction Thread
Fast Facts:
Location: DATCU Stadium – Denton, TX (Capacity: 30,850)
Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/2:30 PM Central, Saturday, November 9th
Surface: PowerBlade HP+
Weather: High 69, Low 53, 69 degrees at kickoff, Sunny
TV: ESPN2
Team Name: Mean Green
Conference Affiliation: American Athletic Conference
Head Coach: Eric Morris (34-28 career, 10-10 at North Texas in two seasons)
2024 Record: 5-3, 2-2 AAC
Program History:
The Mean Green have a storied history that began all the way back in 1913 when they were known as Texas State Normal College. They have spent many seasons at both the FCS/1-AA and FBS/1-A levels of college football. They have had some very successful stints and coaches to include most famously, Hayden Fry from 1973-1978.
Fry and the Mean Green won the Missouri Valley Conference in 1973 with a 5-5-1 record. Fry was responsible for turning the Mean Green into a 1-A program during his tenure. The Mean Green finished 10-1 in 1977 with their only loss coming against 21st ranked Florida State.
After Fry’s departure the financial status of the North Texas football program forced the Mean Green to return to 1-AA. Darrell Dickey revived the program with four straight Sun Belt conference championships from 2001-2004.
Seth Littrell took over the program in 2016 and led UNT to the Heart of Dallas bowl where they were defeated by Jeff Monken’s Army Black Knights in overtime. In 2017, the Mean Green went 9-5 and won Conference USA’s West division. The Mean Green went 9-4 in 2018.
North Texas has been a member of eight different conferences and has three stints as an Independent. North Texas has won 25 conference championships with their most recent conference title coming in 2004 (Sun Belt). The Mean Green have competed in 14 bowl games with a 3-11 record. In 2022, they lost to Boise State 35-32 in the Frisco Bowl.
39 North Texas players have been drafted by the NFL, most notably Hall of Famer “Mean” Joe Greene of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They currently have 6 NFL players. Other than Greene, their most famous alumni may be WWE Hall of Famer, “Stone Cold” Steve Austin.
Series History:
Army is 5-21 all-time vs. the Mean Green, with their first victory coming enroute to their 9-0 start in 1996. In 2016, the Mean Green came into Michie Stadium during the regular season and handed the Black Knights a beating as they recovered 7 Army fumbles. Army returned the favor defeating the Mean Green in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl to give Jeff Monken his first bowl victory at Army.
Last Meeting:
The Mean Green defeated the Black Knights in Denton in November 2017 to hand Army just their 3rd loss of the season as Army would go on to finish 10-3. The game was a 52-49 shootout where neither team’s defense had an answer for their opponent’s offense.
North Texas QB Mason Fine went 24-36 for 386 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception. QB Ahmad Bradshaw rushed for 244 yards for Army and 2 touchdowns. After North Texas took an early 28-13 lead in part due to a muffed punt by Army in the red zone, Army came storming back to tie the game 49-49 late before North Texas kicked the game-winning field goal with 5 seconds left on the clock.
North Texas Offense:
This is by far the best offense Nate Woody’s defense has faced all season. The Mean Green are ranked 3rd nationally in total offense and are scoring 41 points/game (6th nationally). Their passing offense is averaging 372 yards/game and is ranked 2nd nationally. The Mean Green can put up points in bunches.
QB Chandler Morris is a problem. He is the most accurate passer Army has faced (and maybe will face) all season. On the season, Morris is 224/349 for 2873 yards and a 64.2% completion rate. He has thrown for 26 touchdowns vs. 8 interceptions, has been sacked 9 times (which means he gets rid of the ball quickly) and has a 153.3 QBR.
Junior WR DT Sheffield leads the Mean Green in receiving with 51 catches for 690 yards and 10 touchdowns. Sheffield will present matchup problems for Army’s secondary. He has against everyone else he has faced. He’s small but lightning fast at 5/10”, 170. Sheffield is not a one-man show, however. Morris will spread it around in the passing game as he has thrown touchdowns to 9 different receivers.
The Mean Green struggle to run the ball and are pretty one dimensional, but as the previous statistics show, it really doesn’t matter much. Their leading rusher is Junior Shane Porter. Porter has 48 carries for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns. I wouldn’t expect North Texas to try Army’s run defense much.
North Texas Defense:
As good as the Mean Green’s offense is, their defense is equally as bad. They are ranked 121st in total defense – 104 against the run (177 yards/game) and 271 yards/game against the pass. They surrender 36.9 points/game and rank near the bottom of the FBS in all defensive categories. Their leading tackler is LB Jaylen Smith. Smith has 55 total tackles, 21 solo tackles and 1 interception.
Prediction:
Army opens as a 5 1/2-point favorite. ESPN FPI gives Army a 62.2% chance of winning. In our preseason prediction article, we had North Texas winning this one.
Well, Army fans, this is where it gets real for your Black Knights. There are no more cupcakes left on the schedule. North Texas will be the first team Army has faced all season with a record better than .500. They have an explosive passing game and can score points quickly in bunches (like 28 in a few minutes in multiple games).
Army doesn’t typically do well in shootouts (see the 52-49 loss for context). With that being said, Army’s style is well-suited for an opponent like North Texas. North Texas will have no clue how to slow down Army’s option attack. (As such, we hope to see a return to more of the traditional triple option with all 3 phases as opposed to what we’ve witnessed against ECU and Air Force where Army operated almost exclusively out of shotgun and ran the ball between the tackles). Expect Army to gobble up clock and keep North Texas’s offense on the sideline.
If Army can keep North Texas to 10 possessions or less, they have a chance of holding them to under 40 points. Do that and they should win. Tulane was able to hold UNT to 27 points and won handily. Speaking of Tulane, Morris went out with a shoulder injury in that game after a violent QB sack. We aren’t sure of Morris’s status but with two weeks to heal, we have to assume he’ll start.
Of course, the biggest question mark isn’t on the North Texas side of the ball at all. Will Army have superstar QB Bryson Daily for this trip? Will Daily have time to heal from his illness/injury? If he does, we feel pretty confident in Army’s ability to play keep away and pull out a close victory.
However, if Daily can’t go, we have to wonder what De’Wayne Coleman can and can’t do, and how much that limits Cody Worley’s play sheet. Without Daily, this could be an uphill battle. As such, we offer two predictions for this game.
With Daily:
Army – 37
North Texas – 26
Without Daily:
Army – 28
North Texas - 27
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